[Two of my friendly clients expressed similar concerns of not having a fund in their portfolio that has created high double digit returns and also felt their friends have much higher return with other advisors/financial institutions. I looked in their portfolio and found that one has an investment profile of Low-Risk-Tolerance where as the other has a Medium-Risk-Tolerance.  I explained to them in detail about their portfolios and stated their returns are according to their investment profiles and we can modify their portfolio if their profile has changed. However, my conversations with them inspired me to write the following article for the benefit of other clients.] February 09, 2006

 

Emotions of Fear and Greed - Does Not Allow Realistic Return Expectations

 

Individual investors and financial experts recognize the Bear Markets and Downtrend Markets, and Bull Markets and Uptrend Markets - Only after its occurrence, after the fact and not before its occurrence. Many predict the markets’ trends. Predictors take pride when they were right and reasons with excuses when there were wrong. If predictors knew that their predictions would be right then they would have invested all their assets in markets accordingly and have become rich by now. Is it not? Who has the Crystal Ball?  Find out how the world’s richest people became richer? Certainly, they became richer not by speculation or gamble on basis of probabilities.

 

Results of a downtrend or bear markets investors are emotionally bias to fear, their risk tolerance suddenly becomes low with panic, and psychologically feel exhaustion, disbelief and demoralization. A negative return is unacceptable by investors, as they think the returns should be positive.

 

Results of uptrend or bull markets investors are emotionally bias to greed, their risk tolerance suddenly becomes high with excitement and psychologically feel euphoria, greed and extrapolation. A single digit positive return is unacceptable by investors as they think the return should be some thing higher.

 

At Shah Financial Planning (SFP) we do not predict whether the markets’ will be up trended or down trended, or will be bear or bull markets, when we develop clients’ investment portfolio. We believe that markets’ volatilities depend on several factors, which are uncontrollable. You cannot predict the markets and history has shown that any asset class, sector/industry, region/country, investment style, or market capitalization seldom is the best performer one year after another - Because Winners Rotate.

 

So, at SFP we do not chase a winner or a winner fund. We focus on your financial and investment objectives, and an investment time horizon, along with most importantly your risk tolerance - all these factors comprise your interment profile.  With this profile we develop your portfolio by diversifying your investment by asset allocation, regional representations, investment styles, market capitalization. Realistically, investors should expect their returns according to their investment profile on our record - KYC (Know-Your-Client form). If ones’ portfolio is built with moderate risk, then expecting a double digit return is unrealistic, when up trended markets. Similarly, if ones’ portfolio is built with moderate risk then there should not be a double digit negative return, when markets down trended. Having a high percentage of a portfolio with labour-sponsored (which gave 30% - 35% tax credits) and specialty funds makes a portfolio of high risk tolerance.

 

Should you have any concerns with your returns, we encourage you to set a meeting with us to review your portfolio and modify it according to your new investment profile. Primarily, we focus in protecting your principal and have a long term growth accordingly to your investment profile. We encourage and keep reminding our clients to have their KYC update, which includes Investment Profile, at least annually, as it is important and mandatory by Regulator’s. This is for your benefit allowing us to serve you better with your objectives.

 

                                                                                                                                                By: Narendra Shah, B.SC., PFP,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Senior Financial Advisor

                                                                                                                                             SHAH FINANCIAL PLANNING INC.